Copper Prices Decline, Sentiment for Shanghai Spot Copper Procurement and Sales Rebounds [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM November 3:

Today, the spot price of SMM #1 copper cathode against the SHFE 2511 contract was at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 5 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 86,660 to 87,020 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper briefly surged to 87,220 yuan/mt before starting to decline, falling to 86,730 yuan/mt around 11 a.m. before stopping its decline and rebounding. The inter-month price spread fluctuated between a contango of 30 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, while the import loss for the current-month SHFE copper contract was nearly 1,000 yuan/mt.

Intraday purchasing and sales sentiment improved, mainly because copper prices fell below 87,500 yuan/mt and even below 87,000 yuan/mt at times, attracting downstream purchases. Arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes over the weekend prompted suppliers to increase their sales sentiment. As a result, spot premiums for SHFE copper did not rebound significantly despite the decline in copper prices, as downstream buyers continued to drive down purchasing prices. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.99, while sales sentiment was 3.19.Suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with Luzhou Fangxiangguang JCC and others trading at a premium of around 20 yuan/mt, while Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin, and others traded at a discount of 80 to 60 yuan/mt. Intraday, SX-EW copper was scarce, with offers mostly around a discount of 100 yuan/mt, while non-registered sources traded at a discount of around 160 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead, as copper prices fall to around 87,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing sentiment is expected to improve compared to the previous period. However, due to significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai region, downstream buyers are likely to continue driving down purchasing prices, and spot premiums for SHFE copper are not expected to see a significant rebound.